For a long time, recruitment meant spotting a good CV, assessing a career path, then “going with your gut” to decide whether the candidate would be a good fit. That model worked in a relatively stable market, where skills lasted longer and candidate volumes were sufficient.
In 2026, that framework no longer holds.
Companies are facing a long-term talent shortage, rapid changes in roles and skills, and growing pressure to deliver performance from day one. In this context, every hiring mistake comes with a direct cost: financial, operational and human.
Yet despite these challenges, a large share of recruitment decisions still relies on implicit criteria that are poorly formalised and hard to compare.
The 2026 reality check: too much intuition, not enough clarity
Intuition itself isn’t the problem. The experience of recruiters and hiring managers remains extremely valuable.
The issue arises when that intuition isn’t supported by tools or challenged against clear criteria.
The result:
- hiring decisions that are hard to justify,
- biased comparisons between candidates,
- gaps between what the role promises and the reality on the ground,
- and, over time, poor hiring decisions that weaken teams.
In a tight market, organisations can no longer afford to hire “by feel”. They need to be clear about what they genuinely expect from a role and assess candidates on comparable, transparent bases.
Moving from job descriptions to a success model
One of the first levers of predictive recruitment is changing the starting point.
Rather than relying solely on a descriptive job spec, the key question becomes far more strategic: what really drives success in this role, in this specific context?
This means:
- identifying the key technical, behavioural and functional skills,
- prioritising them based on the role’s real challenges,
- accepting that not all criteria carry the same weight,
- and making these choices explicit and shared.
This work turns what is often an implicit view of the role into a clear success framework that can be used throughout the recruitment process.
Prediction is not a magic promise
Talking about predictive recruitment doesn’t mean “letting an algorithm decide instead of humans”.
The goal is to reduce uncertainty by relying on relevant, comparable data.
Predictive approaches make it possible to:
- compare candidates using the same criteria,
- combine different sources of information (experience, skills, behaviours),
- identify gaps between role requirements and actual potential,
- and bring greater clarity to the final decision.
Prediction doesn’t replace human judgement. It makes it more informed, more deliberate and more consistent.
Towards sustainable predictive recruitment
In a tight labour market, the real challenge isn’t just hiring fast, but hiring right.
That means:
- defining expectations more clearly from the outset,
- securing hiring decisions,
- reducing costly mistakes,
- and building more sustainable working relationships.
Predictive recruitment fits squarely within this approach: moving from reactive hiring to a more thoughtful process, aligned with real business needs and candidate aspirations.
